Last major update issued on August 19, 2007 at 04:55 UTC.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update July 23, 2007)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update July 23, 2007)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update July 23, 2007)]
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The geomagnetic field was quiet on August 18. Solar wind speed ranged between 343 and 431 km/s (average speed was 362 km/s, decreasing 59 km/s from the previous day).
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 67.9. The planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.6). Three hour interval K indices: 20001112 (planetary), 20001000 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is below the class A1 level.
At midnight the visible solar disk was spotless. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day. An active region at the southeast limb will likely rotate into view on August 19, this region could produce C flares.
August 16-18: No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed.
history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH285) was in an Earth facing position on August 14-15. A small recurrent coronal hole (CH286) was Earth facing on August 17. A recurrent coronal hole in the southern hemisphere will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on August 21-23.
Processed STEREO 195 image at 22:05 UTC on August 18. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to very poor.
Monitoring remarks from a location near N58E06: August 19: Many stations from North America were heard during the night. Greenland on 650 kHz was excellent (unusual this early in the season), as was 950 CKNB. Strong signals were heard from several other stations including 1010 WINS, 1030 WBZ, 1070 CBA, 1110 WBT and 1520 WWKB. Signals faded quicklier than expected after LSR.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on August 19-21, possibly with a few unsettled intervals due to weak coronal hole effects.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|Total spot count:||0||0|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2007.02||77.7||10.6||(11.6 predicted, -0.4)|
|2007.03||72.2||4.8||(11.1 predicted, -0.5)|
|2007.04||72.4||3.7||(10.8 predicted, -0.3)|
|2007.05||74.4||11.7||(10.4 predicted, -0.4)|
|2007.06||73.7||12.0||(10.3 predicted, -0.1)|
|2007.07||71.6||10.0||(10.5 predicted, +0.2)|
|2007.08||68.4 (1)||5.4 (2)||(11.0 predicted, +0.5)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.