Last major update issued on April 2, 2007 at 03:25 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm on April 1. Solar wind speed ranged between 379 and 573 km/s (average speed was 505 km/s, increasing 172 km/s over the previous day) under the influence of a high speed stream from CH263.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 71.7. The planetary A index was 30 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 30.0). Three hour interval K indices: 54544334 (planetary), 54544333 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is below the class A1 level.
At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10949 reemerged with a few small spots in the leading positive polarity area.
March 30 - April 1: No obvious fully or partially Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery.
Coronal hole
history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28
days ago
27
days ago
26
days ago
A recurrent coronal hole (CH263) in the southern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on March 28-30.
Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 17:00 UTC on April 1. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to be quiet to active on April 2-3 due to a high speed stream from CH263. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on April 4-6.
Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next
48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Daily monitoring will not resume until a local noise problem (related to construction work on a neighboring property) has been fixed. Occasional monitoring reports will be submitted when propagation is good.
March 23, 2007: Strong signals were noted from a number of USA east coast stations. Some stations from the Canadian Atlantic provinces had signals exceeding S9 (on a Drake R8A).
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
Active region | Date numbered | SEC spot count |
STAR spot count |
Location at midnight | Area | Classification | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10949 | 2007.03.28 | 3 | 4 | N08E08 | 0050 | CRO | classification was AXX at midnight, area 0010 |
Total spot count: | 3 | 4 | |||||
SSN: | 13 | 14 |
Month | Average solar flux at Earth |
International sunspot number | Smoothed sunspot number |
---|---|---|---|
2000.04 | 184.2 | 125.5 | 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. |
2000.07 | 202.3 | 170.1 | 119.8 |
2001.12 | 235.1 | 132.2 | 114.6 (-0.9) |
2006.01 | 83.4 | 15.3 | 20.8 (-2.2) |
2006.02 | 76.5 | 4.9 | 18.6 (-2.2) |
2006.03 | 75.4 | 10.6 | 17.4 (-1.2) |
2006.04 | 89.0 | 30.2 | 17.1 (-0.3) |
2006.05 | 80.9 | 22.3 | 17.3 (+0.2) |
2006.06 | 76.5 | 13.9 | 16.3 (-1.0) |
2006.07 | 75.7 | 12.2 | 15.3 (-1.0) |
2006.08 | 79.0 | 12.9 | 15.6 (+0.3) |
2006.09 | 77.8 | 14.4 | 15.6 (+0.0) |
2006.10 | 74.3 | 10.4 | (14.3 predicted, -1.3) |
2006.11 | 86.3 | 21.5 | (12.6 predicted, -1.7) |
2006.12 | 84.5 | 13.6 | (11.6 predicted, -1.0) |
2007.01 | 83.3 | 16.9 | (11.2 predicted, -0.4) |
2007.02 | 77.7 | 10.6 | (11.1 predicted, -0.1) |
2007.03 | 72.2 | 4.8 | (11.3 predicted, +0.2) |
2007.03 | 71.7 (1) | 0.4 (2) | (11.9 predicted, +0.6) |
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC)
sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically
30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
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