Last major update issued on November 22, 2006 at 05:10 UTC.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2005 (last update March 3, 2006)]
[Archived reports (last update November 12, 2006)]
The geomagnetic field was very quiet on November 21. Solar wind speed ranged between 320 and 439 km/s (all day average 354 km/s - decreasing 17 km/s from the previous day). Solar wind density was at times extremely low.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 77.5. The planetary A index was 1 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 1.1). Three hour interval K indices: 00000001 (planetary), 10000000 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A2 level.
At midnight the visible solar disk was spotless. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
November 19-21: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in LASCO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole, CH248, in the southern hemisphere could rotate into an Earth facing position on November 19-23. Only the northernmost extensions are within potentially geoeffective positions, so there is a chance the associated high speed stream will not reach Earth.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on November 22. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on November 22. A high speed stream from CH248 could arrive during the latter half of the day or on November 23 and cause occasional unsettled and active intervals until November 26.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to occasionally fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is very poor.
Monitoring remarks from a location near N58E06: Some stations from North America were audible during the night. Only stations like 1130 WBBR and 1510 WWZN managed to reach fair to good signal levels, other stations were mostly poor.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|Total spot count:||1||0|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2006.05||80.9||22.2||(16.8 predicted, -0.3)|
|2006.06||76.5||13.9||(15.1 predicted, -1.7)|
|2006.07||75.7||12.2||(13.2 predicted, -1.9)|
|2006.08||79.0||12.9||(12.7 predicted, -0.5)|
|2006.09||77.8||14.5||(12.6 predicted, -0.1)|
|2006.10||74.3||10.4||(11.5 predicted, -1.1)|
|2006.11||88.8 (1)||25.5 (2)||(10.1 predicted, -1.4)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.