Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on January 25, 2006 at 05:10 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 8, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 8, 2006)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 8, 2006)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update February 1, 2005)]
[Archived reports (last update January 8, 2006)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on January 24. Solar wind speed ranged between 444 and 626 (all day average 549) km/sec under the decreasing influence of a high speed stream from CH206.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 92.6. The planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.3).
Three hour interval K indices: 34201011 (planetary), 24311111 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A8 level.

At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 1 C class event was recorded during the day.

Region 10848 decayed slowly and appears less likely to produce a minor M class flare. Flare: C1.0 at 07:21 UTC.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

January 22-24: No obviously fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH206) was in an Earth facing position on January 21-23. CH206 has decayed in the southern part over the last solar rotation.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on January 25. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 25-26 and quiet on January 27-28.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)
Coronal hole indicator CME indicator M and X class flare indicator

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is very poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight: WLAM Lewiston ME and Radio Vibración (Venezuela). Propagation to North America was much improved over the last 24h with fair to good signals from several New York stations.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered SEC
spot
count
STAR
spot
count
Location at midnight Area Classification Comment
10848 2006.01.18 28 30 S19W41 0320 EAC  
10849 2006.01.22 2   S07E16 0010 HSX spotless
10850 2006.01.23 2   N06W18 0010 AXX spotless
Total spot count: 32 30  
SSN: 62 40  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar
flux at Earth
International sunspot number Smoothed sunspot number
2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.
2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8
2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9)
2004.11 113.2 43.5 35.3 (-0.6)
2004.12 94.5 17.9 35.2 (-0.1)
2005.01 102.2 31.3 34.6 (-0.6)
2005.02 97.2 29.2 33.9 (-0.7)
2005.03 89.9 24.5 33.5 (-0.4)
2005.04 86.0 24.4 31.6 (-1.9)
2005.05 99.3 42.6 28.9 (-2.7)
2005.06 93.7 39.6 28.8 (-0.1)
2005.07 96.4 39.9 (29.1 predicted, +0.3)
2005.08 90.5 36.4 (27.4 predicted, -1.7)
2005.09 91.1 22.1 (25.4 predicted, -2.0)
2005.10 77.0 8.5 (23.4 predicted, -2.0)
2005.11 86.3 18.0 (21.0 predicted, -2.4)
2005.12 90.7 41.2 (18.2 predicted, -2.8)
2006.01 83.8 (1) 23.3 (2) (15.2 predicted, -3.0)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


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