Last major update issued on January 19, 2006 at 04:30 UTC.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 8, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 8, 2006)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 8, 2006)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update February 1, 2005)]
[Archived reports (last update January 8, 2006)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on January 18. Solar wind speed ranged between 435 and 563 (all day average 510) km/sec. Solar wind speed increased during the day, then decreased rapidly early on January 19.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 85.6. The planetary A
index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap
Three hour interval K indices: 21121211 (planetary), 22351101 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A2 level.
At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10846 decayed further and could become spotless before rotating out of view at the northwest limb today.
Region 10847 decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 10848 emerged quickly in the southeast quadrant. C flares are possible.
January 16-18: No obviously fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH206) will likely rotate to an Earth facing position late on January 21-22. A small coronal hole currently in the southwest quadrant was in an Earth facing position on January 17-18.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on January 19. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 19-22 and become unsettled to minor storm on January 23-24 due to effects from CH206.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
/* No monitoring on January 19, daily monitoring will resume on January 20 */ Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is excellent. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is very poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: WLAM Lewiston ME. On other frequencies there were many stations from mostly the eastern half of North America. As an example 870 kHz had WWL New Orleans as a clear dominant. During WWL fades it was possible to hear two other stations, one with a news talk format (possibly Ithaca, NY station) and another with oldies. On 1000 kHz KOMO Seattle WA had, at times, a strong signal.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10846||2006.01.15||4||1||N04W71||0050||DAO||classification was AXX at midnight, area 0010|
|10847||2006.01.15||7||6||S08W50||0050||DAO||area was 0030 at midnight|
|10848||2006.01.18||9||15||S18E37||0060||DAI||area was 0100 at midnight|
|Total spot count:||20||22|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2005.07||96.4||39.9||(29.1 predicted, +0.3)|
|2005.08||90.5||36.4||(27.4 predicted, -1.7)|
|2005.09||91.1||22.1||(25.4 predicted, -2.0)|
|2005.10||77.0||8.5||(23.4 predicted, -2.0)|
|2005.11||86.3||18.0||(21.0 predicted, -2.4)|
|2005.12||90.7||41.2||(18.2 predicted, -2.8)|
|2006.01||81.1 (1)||13.5 (2)||(15.2 predicted, -3.0)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.