Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on January 11, 2006 at 05:20 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 8, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 8, 2006)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 8, 2006)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update February 1, 2005)]
[Archived reports (last update January 8, 2006)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was inactive to very quiet on January 10. Solar wind speed ranged between 272 and 315 (all day average 277 - the lowest average for a single day recorded so far) km/sec.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 77.8. The planetary A index was 1 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 1.0).
Three hour interval K indices: 00000100 (planetary), 00001210 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is well below the class A1 level.

At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.

Region 10845 was quiet and stable.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

January 8-10: No obviously fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A poorly defined trans equatorial coronal hole (CH204) was in an Earth facing position on January 8. CH204 decayed on January 9 becoming very small and could not be observed on January 10. What could be an elongated (north-south orientation) trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate to an Earth facing position on January 13.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on January 11. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on January 11-16 with a possibility of unsettled intervals on January 11-12 due to effects from CH204.

Coronal holes (1)	Coronal mass ejections (2)	M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is very poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: WLAM Lewiston ME. Before 04h UTC propagation was best towards the northeast USA and the eastern Canadian provinces. On 540 kHz both CBT and CBEF were audible at times. Later on propagation improved towards the south with stations from Puerto Rico, Venezuela and Colombia noted on several frequencies. During the afternoon and early evening on January 10 propagation was very good to Alaska and the northernmost parts of Canada.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Monthly solar cycle data

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.