Last major update issued on January 5, 2006 at 06:15 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was inactive to very quiet on January 4. Solar wind speed ranged between 349 and 448 (all day average 377) km/sec.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 84.0. The planetary A
index was 2 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap
indices: 1.6).
Three hour interval K indices: 01000000 (planetary), 01001100 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A3 level.
At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10841 decayed slowly and will rotate over the northwest limb today.
Region 10843 decayed slowly and quietly.
January 2-4: No obviously fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the
situation one solar rotation ago: 28
days ago 27 days ago 26
days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or approaching Earth facing positions.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on January 4. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on January 5-10.
Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to occasionally good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight: WLAM Lewiston ME and WWNN Pompano Beach FL. Lots of stations from the eastern half of the USA were heard, most of them with poor to fair signals. WWL New Orleans on 870 kHz had a good signal at 05:30 UTC.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
Active region | Date numbered | SEC spot count |
STAR spot count |
Location at midnight | Area | Classification | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10840 | S03W80 | plage | |||||
10841 | 2 | 3 | N13W76 | 0080 | HAX | area was 0050 at midnight | |
10843 | 3 | 2 | N13W51 | 0040 | HAX | ||
Total spot count: | 5 | 5 | |||||
SSN: | 25 | 25 |
Month | Average solar flux at Earth |
International sunspot number | Smoothed sunspot number |
---|---|---|---|
2000.04 | 184.2 | 125.5 | 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. |
2000.07 | 202.3 | 170.1 | 119.8 |
2001.12 | 235.1 | 132.2 | 114.6 (-0.9) |
2004.11 | 113.2 | 43.5 | 35.3 (-0.6) |
2004.12 | 94.5 | 17.9 | 35.2 (-0.1) |
2005.01 | 102.2 | 31.3 | 34.6 (-0.6) |
2005.02 | 97.2 | 29.2 | 33.9 (-0.7) |
2005.03 | 89.9 | 24.5 | 33.5 (-0.4) |
2005.04 | 86.0 | 24.4 | 31.6 (-1.9) |
2005.05 | 99.3 | 42.6 | 28.9 (-2.7) |
2005.06 | 93.7 | 39.6 | 28.8 (-0.1) |
2005.07 | 96.4 | 39.9 | (29.1 predicted, +0.3) |
2005.08 | 90.5 | 36.4 | (27.4 predicted, -1.7) |
2005.09 | 91.1 | 22.1 | (25.4 predicted, -2.0) |
2005.10 | 77.0 | 8.5 | (23.4 predicted, -2.0) |
2005.11 | 86.3 | 18.0 | (21.0 predicted, -2.4) |
2005.12 | 90.7 | 41.2 | (18.2 predicted, -2.8) |
2006.01 | 85.2 (1) | 4.6 (2) | (15.2 predicted, -3.0) |
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC)
sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically
30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
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