Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on February 3, 2006 at 05:35 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 8, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 8, 2006)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 8, 2006)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update February 1, 2005)]
[Archived reports (last update January 8, 2006)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was inactive to quiet on February 2. Solar wind speed ranged between 330 and 375 (all day average 347) km/sec under the influence of a very weak stream from CH207/208.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 77.3. The planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.3).
Three hour interval K indices: 10011012 (planetary), 10122211 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is below the class A1 level.

At midnight the visible solar disk was spotless (consecutive spotless days: 6). The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

January 31 - February 2: No obviously fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A small southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH207) was in an Earth facing position on January 28-29. The southernmost parts of a poorly defined coronal hole (CH208) in the northern hemisphere may have been in an Earth facing position on January 30. A small coronal hole (CH209) in the northern hemisphere will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on February 4.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on February 3. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on February 3-9.

Coronal holes (1)	Coronal mass ejections (2)	M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: WLAM Lewiston ME. Station from North America were more numerous and had stronger signals compared to the previous night.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Monthly solar cycle data

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.