Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on December 19, 2006 at 04:25 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2005 (last update March 3, 2006)]
[Archived reports (last update December 18, 2006)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on December 18. Solar wind speed ranged between 361 and 561 km/s (all day average 449 km/s - decreasing 127 km/s from the previous day), decreasing early in the day. After 09h UTC a high speed stream from CH252 began to dominate the solar wind.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 74.7. The planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.9). Three hour interval K indices: 12121224 (planetary), 12132323 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A1 level.

At midnight the visible solar disk was spotless. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

December 16-18: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

Recurrent coronal hole CH252 (southern hemisphere with a trans equatorial extension) was in an Earth facing position on December 16-19.

Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 13:25 UTC on December 18. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm on December 19-21 and quiet to unsettled on December 22 due to effects from CH252.

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Monitoring remarks from a location near N58E06: At 03h UTC no North American stations were audible. The only trans Atlantic stations with audio at that time was 1350 Rádio Cristal (good signal) and two other stations from Brazil on 1290 and 1300 kHz.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Monthly solar cycle data

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.