Last major update issued on April 3, 2006 at 03:55 UTC.
[Solar and
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
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[Solar cycles 21-23
(last update April 1, 2006)]
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[Graphical comparison
of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update April 1, 2006)]
[Graphical
comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update April 1, 2006)]
[Historical solar and
geomagnetic data charts 1954-2005 (last update March 3, 2006)]
[Archived reports (last update
April 3, 2006)]
The geomagnetic field was inactive to very quiet on April 2. Solar wind speed ranged between 267 and 320 (all day average 294) km/sec.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 91.1. The planetary A index
was 1 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap
indices: 1.4).
Three hour interval K indices: 10001001 (planetary), 10001100 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.
At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10865 decayed in the trailing spot section while development
continued in the intermediate spot section. The magnetic delta structure in the
penumbra immediately to the east of the leader spots weakened. C flares are
possible.
Region 10866 developed slightly as the single penumbra increased its
area.
New region 10867 emerged in the southeast quadrant on March 31 and was
finally observed by SEC on April 2. The region continued to develop moderately
quickly. The main area of interest is in the trailing spots where a negative
polarity area emerged at the eastern edge of the positive polarity area. At this
location there is currently a weak magnetic delta structure.
March 31 - April 2: No partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A small coronal hole (CH218) in the northern hemisphere weakened due to coronal expansion caused by the development of region 10865. CH218 was probably too far to the north on April 2 to become geoeffective. A coronal hole (CH219) in the southern hemisphere will likely rotate to an Earth facing position on April 8.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on April 3. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on April 3-5.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: WLAM Lewiston ME. On other frequencies many stations from the eastern half of Canada and the USA were heard, some with fairly strong signals. Greenland on 650 kHz was very strong.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered | SEC spot count |
STAR spot count |
Location at midnight | Area | Classification | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10865 | 2006.03.28 | 27 | 26 | S11W06 | 0340 | EHC | beta-gamma-delta classification was EKI at midnight, area 0400 |
| 10866 | 2006.03.29 | 3 | 2 | S06E16 | 0100 | HAX | |
| 10867 | 2006.04.02 | 8 | 17 | S16E16 | 0050 | DSO | beta-gamma-delta formerly region S638 classification was DAI at midnight, area 0090 |
| Total spot count: | 38 | 45 | |||||
| SSN: | 68 | 75 | |||||
| Month | Average solar flux at Earth |
International sunspot number | Smoothed sunspot number |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000.04 | 184.2 | 125.5 | 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. |
| 2000.07 | 202.3 | 170.1 | 119.8 |
| 2001.12 | 235.1 | 132.2 | 114.6 (-0.9) |
| 2005.01 | 102.2 | 31.3 | 34.6 (-0.6) |
| 2005.02 | 97.2 | 29.2 | 33.9 (-0.7) |
| 2005.03 | 89.9 | 24.5 | 33.5 (-0.4) |
| 2005.04 | 86.0 | 24.2 | 31.6 (-1.9) |
| 2005.05 | 99.3 | 42.7 | 28.9 (-2.7) |
| 2005.06 | 93.7 | 39.3 | 28.8 (-0.1) |
| 2005.07 | 96.4 | 40.1 | 29.1 (+0.3) |
| 2005.08 | 90.5 | 36.4 | 27.4 (-1.7) |
| 2005.09 | 91.1 | 21.9 | 25.8 (-1.6) |
| 2005.10 | 77.0 | 8.5 | (24.8 predicted, -1.0) |
| 2005.11 | 86.3 | 18.0 | (22.7 predicted, -2.1) |
| 2005.12 | 90.7 | 41.2 | (19.8 predicted, -2.9) |
| 2006.01 | 83.4 | 15.4 | (16.7 predicted, -3.1) |
| 2006.02 | 76.5 | 4.7 | (13.6 predicted, -3.1) |
| 2006.03 | 75.4 | 10.8 | (11.4 predicted, -2.2) |
| 2006.04 | 89.0 (1) | 3.6 (2) | (10.7 predicted, -0.7) |
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC)
sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically
30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
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