Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on November 28, 2005 at 04:40 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 9, 2005)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 9, 2005)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 9, 2005)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update February 1, 2005)]
[Archived reports (last update November 2, 2005)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was inactive to very quiet on November 27. Solar wind speed ranged between 321 and 401 (all day average 358) km/sec.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 80.7. The planetary A index was 2 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.3)
Three hour interval K indices: 00110101 (planetary), 11211111 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A5 level.

At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.

Region 10824 decayed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S609] This region emerged in the southwest quadrant on November 27. Location at midnight: S21W05.
[S610] A new region rotated into view at the southeast limb on November 27. Location at midnight: S03E75.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 25-27: No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

Recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole CH200 will rotate into an Earth facing position on November 28-29.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on November 28. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on Nov. 28-29 becoming quiet to active on November 30 - December 2 due to a high speed stream from CH200.

Coronal holes (1)	Coronal mass ejections (2)	M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight: WLAM Lewiston ME and WWNN Pompano Beach FL. Many stations from the eastern parts of North America were heard with fair to good signals during the night. One example is WTIC Hartford CT on 1080 kHz which had a clear and strong signal.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Monthly solar cycle data

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.