Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on March 15, 2005 at 03:50 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update March 3, 2005)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update March 3, 2005)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update March 3, 2005)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update February 1, 2005)]
[Archived reports (last update March 6, 2005)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on March 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 336 and 446 km/sec under the influence of a low speed stream from CH151.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 111.5. The planetary A index was 21 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 20.9).
Three hour interval K indices: 44345322 (planetary), 54344323 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B1-B2 level.

At midnight there were 5 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 1 C class event was recorded during the day.

Region 10741 lost a few spots and gained some penumbral area as the region matured. Flares: C1.0 at 07:08 UTC.
Region 10742 decayed significantly and lost many spots. Further decay is likely as the opposite polarity areas continue to increase their separation.
Region 10743 was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S524] This region in the northeast quadrant redeveloped spots on March 14. Location at midnight: N15E12.
[S525] A new region emerged in the southeast quadrant on March 14. Location at midnight: S14E33.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

March 12-14: No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A recurrent coronal hole (CH152) in the northern hemisphere will likely rotate to a geoeffective position on March 14. This coronal hole appears to have decayed somewhat over the last rotation.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 13:06 UTC on March 11. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on March 15-16. Quiet to active conditions are possible on March 17-18 due to effects from CH152.

Coronal holes (1)	Coronal mass ejections (2)	M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is fair to poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: Radio Cristal del Uruguay at 01:30 UTC, later Radio Vibración (Venezuela) with a weak signal. From North America WWZN on 1510 kHz had a fair signal while CJYQ on 930 was weak. Propagation during the local sunrise opening on March 14 was fair to good on frequencies below 1100 kHz. Several Newfoundland stations had S9+0dB signals.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Monthly solar cycle data

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.