Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on December 15, 2005 at 04:05 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update December 6, 2005)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update December 6, 2005)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update December 6, 2005)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update February 1, 2005)]
[Archived reports (last update December 3, 2005)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was inactive to quiet on December 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 348 and 453 (all day average 401) km/sec.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 89.6. The planetary A index was 2 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.5).
Three hour interval K indices: 01200001 (planetary), 01321120 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A5 level.

At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A single C class event was recorded during the day.

Region 10834 changed with positive polarity flux emerging just northeast of the main penumbra. The region could begin producing flares if this development continues.
Region 10835 decayed slowly in the trailing spot section and was otherwise mostly unchanged.
Region 10836 developed further as penumbral area increased significantly. Further C flares are possible. Flare: C1.0 at 10:12 UTC.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

December 12-14: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were observed in incomplete imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 13:06 UTC on December 2. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on December 15-18.

Coronal holes (1)	Coronal mass ejections (2)	M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is very poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight: Radio Vibración (Venezuela) and WWNN Pompano Beach FL. Propagation generally favored stations further south than during the previous nights with several Cuban stations having fair to strong signals.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Monthly solar cycle data

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.