Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on April 22, 2005 at 02:50 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update April 4, 2005)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update April 4, 2005)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update April 4, 2005)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update February 1, 2005)]
[Archived reports (last update April 15, 2005)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on April 21. Solar wind speed ranged between 386 and 551 km/sec.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 77.1. The planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.4).
Three hour interval K indices: 20111211 (planetary), 30112212 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A2 level.

At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.

Region 10752 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 10755 decayed slowly and could become spotless today.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

April 19-21: No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A recurrent  coronal hole (CH159) in the northern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on April 19-20. A coronal hole (CH160) in the southern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on April 20. A small trans equatorial coronal hole (CH161) could rotate to an Earth facing position on April 23.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on April 22. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected be quiet to active on April 22-23 due to effects from CH159 and CH160. Quiet to unsettled is likely on April 24-25.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)
Coronal hole indicator CME indicator M and X class flare indicator

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: Radio Cristal del Uruguay. At least 2 stations from Argentina were noted occasionally when testing a new antenna directed towards the southwest. Other stations with fair signals were Radio San Carlos (Uruguay) on 1510, Radio El Mundo (Argentina) on 1070 and Rádio Cristal (Brazil) on 1350 kHz.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered SEC
spot
count
STAR
spot
count
Location at midnight Area Classification Comment
10752 2005.04.12 1 1 N03W55 0060 HSX  
10754 2005.04.14     S08W42     plage
10755 2005.04.17 1 2 S12E21 0010 HSX classification was HRX at midnight
Total spot count: 2 3  
SSN: 22 23  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar
flux at Earth
International sunspot number Smoothed sunspot number
2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.
2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8
2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9)
2004.02 107.0 45.8 49.3 (-2.7)
2004.03 112.0 49.1 47.1 (-2.2)
2004.04 101.2 39.3 45.5 (-1.6)
2004.05 99.8 41.5 43.8 (-1.7)
2004.06 97.4 43.2 41.6 (-2.2)
2004.07 119.1 51.1 40.2 (-1.4)
2004.08 109.6 40.9 39.2 (-1.0)
2004.09 103.1 27.7 37.5 (-1.7)
2004.10 105.9 48.0 (35.6 predicted, -1.9)
2004.11 113.2 43.5 (33.9 predicted, -1.7)
2004.12 94.5 17.9 (31.6 predicted, -2.3)
2005.01 102.2 31.3 (28.9 predicted, -2.7)
2005.02 97.2 29.1 (26.5 predicted, -2.4)
2005.03 89.9 24.8 (24.7 predicted, -1.8)
2005.04 83.8 (1) 30.5 (2) (22.9 predicted, -1.8)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


[DX-Listeners' Club]