Last major update issued on June 27, 2004 at 03:30 UTC.
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2004)]
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The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 26. Solar wind speed ranged between 307 and 423 km/sec. A weak disturbance arrived at Earth near 09h UTC.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 98.9. The planetary A
index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.5).
Three hour interval K indices: 11013333 (planetary), 11123423 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.
At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 2 C class events was recorded during the day. A C1.3 flare at 04:24 UTC had its origin at or behind the southeast limb.
Region 10635 rotated partly out of view at the southwest limb. Flare: C8.6 at
07:18 UTC.
Region 10637 lost some small spots, however, rudimentary penumbra developed on a few other spots.
June 24-26: Very few LASCO images available. A weak CME may have been associated with a C1 event in region 10635 on June 24.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28
days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH103) was in a geoeffective position on June 26-27.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 13:05 UTC on June 15. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 27 becoming quiet to active on June 28-30 due to a high speed stream from coronal hole CH103.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
 |
 |
|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is fair to good. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight: Radio Cristal del Uruguay and Radio Vibración (Venezuela). After local sunrise propagation favored Brazil, Uruguay and the Buenos Aires area of Argentina. Brazilians were noted on a number of frequencies below 1000 kHz: 560, 580, 600 (Rádio Itatiaia), 620, 740 (Rádio Sociedade), 760 (Rádio Uirapurú), 840, 860, 880, 890 kHz. Radio Carve (Uruguay) on 850 kHz had the best signal I've ever noted them with. 1510 WWZN Boston was again the strongest station from North America, only a few stations from Newfoundland and Nova Scotia were heard otherwise.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered | SEC spot count |
STAR spot count |
Location at midnight | Area | Classification | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10635 | 2004.06.14 | 10 | 2 | S11W80 | 0360 | FKI |
beta-gamma
classification was DAO at midnight, area 0200 |
| 10636 | 2004.06.20 | 1 | S09W49 | 0000 | AXX | spotless | |
| 10637 | 2004.06.21 | 11 | 5 | N09W03 | 0020 | BXO |
classification was DRO at midnight |
| 10638 | 2004.06.26 | 2 | N07E22 | 0010 | AXX |
formerly region S424 spotless |
|
| S420 | 2004.06.19 | S16W73 | plage | ||||
| S422 | 2004.06.20 | S10W60 | plage | ||||
| Total spot count: | 24 | 7 | |||||
| SSN: | 64 | 27 | |||||
| Month | Average solar flux at Earth |
International sunspot number | Smoothed sunspot number |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000.04 | 184.2 | 125.5 | 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. |
| 2000.07 | 202.3 | 170.1 | 119.8 |
| 2001.12 | 235.1 | 132.2 | 114.6 (-0.9) |
| 2003.05 | 115.7 | 55.2 | 67.6 (-2.5) |
| 2003.06 | 129.3 | 77.4 | 65.0 (-2.6) |
| 2003.07 | 127.7 | 83.3 | 61.8 (-3.2) |
| 2003.08 | 122.1 | 72.7 | 60.0 (-1.8) |
| 2003.09 | 112.2 | 48.7 | 59.5 (-0.5) |
| 2003.10 | 151.7 | 65.5 | 58.1 (-1.4) |
| 2003.11 | 140.8 | 67.3 | 56.7 (-1.4) |
| 2003.12 | 114.9 | 46.5 | (54.4 predicted, -2.3) |
| 2004.01 | 114.1 | 37.2 | (50.5 predicted, -3.9) |
| 2004.02 | 107.0 | 46.0 | (46.2 predicted, -4.3) |
| 2004.03 | 112.0 | 48.9 | (43.5 predicted, -2.7) |
| 2004.04 | 101.2 | 39.3 | (41.4 predicted, -2.1) |
| 2004.05 | 99.8 | 41.5 | (38.2 predicted, -3.2) |
| 2004.06 | 98.8 (1) | 70.8 (2) | (35.3 predicted, -2.9) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically
30-50% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
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