Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on June 12, 2004 at 03:50 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2004)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2004)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2004)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update April 28, 2004)]
[Archived reports (last update June 7, 2004)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 11. Solar wind speed ranged between 357 and 448 km/sec.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 83.4. The planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 10.8).
Three hour interval K indices: 32332322 (planetary), 22331223 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A7 level.

At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.

Region 10631 was quiet and stable.
Region 10632 was unchanged and quiet.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

June 9-11: No fully or partly Earth directed CMEs observed.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A recurrent coronal hole (CH101) in the southern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position on June 12.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:05 UTC on June 12. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 12-14 becoming unsettled to active late on June and on June 15 due to a high speed stream from coronal hole CH101.

Coronal holes (1)	Coronal mass ejections (2)	M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is good to excellent. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight: Radio Cristal del Uruguay and Radio Vibración (Venezuela). Propagation towards Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay was excellent after local sunrise (at 02:29 UTC) with a number of interesting stations heard. Signals were noted on 560, 580, 610 (Radio Rural, Montevideo), 650 (SODRE), 740, 760, 780, 790 (Radio Mitre, Buenos Aires), 820, 840, 850 (Radio Carve, Montevideo), 870, 890, 920, 930, 950, 970, 1010, 1020.1 (Radio Ñandutí, Asunción), 1050 (Uruguay), 1150, 1420 (two stations, one from Argentina, one from Uruguay), 1430, 1440, 1480 (Radio Internacional), 1570, 1590, 1630 kHz.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Monthly solar cycle data

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.