Last update issued on July 23, 2003 at 03:40 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update July 2, 2003)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update July 2, 2003)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update July 2, 2003)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2003 (last update July 23, 2003)]
[Archived reports (last update July 21, 2003)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on July 22. Solar wind speed ranged between 407 and 505 km/sec.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 152.5. The planetary A
index was 9 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 9.8).
Three hour interval K indices: 31232232 (planetary), 32332322 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level.
At midnight there were 9 spotted regions on the visible disk. Solar flare activity was low. A total of 10 C class events was recorded during the day.
Region 10409 decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. Flare: C1.8 long duration event
peaking at 17:50 UTC.
Region 10410 decayed further losing nearly all spots between the main negative and positive polarity areas.
Region 10411 was quiet and stable.
Region 10412 decayed slowly and quietly. Flare: C3.5 at 02:06 UTC.
Region 10414 was quiet and stable.
Region 10415 decayed quietly losing most of its small spots.
Region 10416 decayed quickly and had only a single tiny spot left at the end of the day.
Region 10417 developed early in the day, then began to decay. There is still a chance of a minor M class flare. Flares: C2.8 at 03:40, C3.5 at 04:10, C1.5 at 06:32, C5.2/1F at 07:18, C3.6 at 08:20, C1.3 at 14:20, C1.7 at 15:23 and C1.5 at 21:24 UTC.
Region 10418 decayed and could become spotless within a couple of days.
July 20-22: No potentially geoeffective CMEs observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A large coronal hole (CH49) in the southern hemisphere will likely be in a geoeffective position on July 24-29, a thin western extension could be in a geoeffective position on July 22.
Processed GOES SXI coronal structure image at 23:57 UTC on July 22. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on July 22-25. A high speed stream from coronal hole CH49 will likely reach Earth on July 26 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions until August 2.
Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation along north-south paths is poor. [Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are currently monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: Radio Cristal del Uruguay]
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.
|Solar region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10405||2003.07.11||1||S09W84||0010||HSX||rotated out of view|
classification was AXX
at midnight, area 0010
classification was HSX
at midnight, area 0030
|Total spot count:||90||94|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2003.01||144.0||79.7||(79.7 predicted, -2.3)|
|2003.02||124.5||46.0||(74.7 predicted, -5.0)|
|2003.03||131.4||61.1||(69.0 predicted, -5.7)|
|2003.04||126.4||60.0||(64.1 predicted, -4.9)|
|2003.05||115.7||55.2||(59.2 predicted, -4.9)|
|2003.06||129.3||77.4||(55.2 predicted, -4.0)|
|2003.07||135.0 (1)||108.6 (2)||(51.6 predicted, -3.6)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.